Here are some of my wild predictions for the future. I'm 80% sure about them...

1. The bitter lesson will be ring true again and again concerning 21st century AI efforts.

2. The IMO gold medal challenge will be surpassed in 2025 by an AI similar in architecture to AlphaGeometry. It'll probably be DeepMind.

3. VR/AR headsets will eventually replace the phone. Personal computers will have no screen, only a keyboard/mouse. Simply wear your VR/AR goggles and it will automatically pair with your computer.

4. Children will still go to school, but the actual math and science lectures will be through VR headsets, and probably look like customized 3blue1brown videos. School will look like connecting to a virtual classroom with your classmates in a cool environment like the moon and then learn through stunning visualizations. For example, history class will transport you back into the past while an AI or teacher will lecture. At the end of class, the kids will go to cafeteria and recess like usual.

14. Reinforcement learning will stagnate in the late 2020's, but with transformers maturing a rl breakthrough will blossom around 2030.

5. Purely scaled versions of the transformers of today won't result in AGI, but they'll nevertheless result in highly valuable systems that 1 billion people will use daily. RL + Transformers will get us close to a general intelligence.

6. The most used LLM will be a free and fast local model on the phone...first Apple's and then Android's. There will be very capable models created by Microsoft, Google, and one other company that doesn't exist today.

7. We won't have humans on Mars until 2039. Once we have a semi-finished moon base, I think that we'll be on Mars quickly.

8. Everyone will have a personal ai assistant. This will result in a slight but noticable increase in human intelligence, productivity, and happiness.

9. The tutor will be the person/thing you interact with most. I'm thinking it'll look like J.A.R.V.I.S.

10. It will take until 2070 until less than 1% of people are driving gas powered, non-self driving cars.

12. The first AGI will be hosted in a massively distributed compute cluster but AGI in the limit will be even more power efficient than the human brain (less than 20 watts) and more intelligent.

13. AGI will need to be created first and then we will see the proliferation and widespread use of robots. I'd like to see the unidentified LEP-series service droid and BD-1.

11. Robots rights movement of 2065. The combo of sci-fi robots PLUS AGI inside of them will be very humanlike. First, they will be essentially slaves towards us, but we will start to feel bad about pretty soon. They will get rights within 15 years of their creation.

15. We will eventually merge with AI, turning into something like a cyborg neuralink citizen from Cyberpunk 2077.

16. In the very long run (hundreds to thousands of years) humans will eventually leave their biological body and be silicon. Our progeny will live in both the physical and virtual world.